3. More growing churches

The proportion of growing churches has increased from 21% which grew during the 1990s to 34% which have grown in the period 1998 to 2005. The percentage of declining churches has dropped from 65% to 50%, the remaining percentage being stable (congregations remaining within 10% of what they were). Figure 2 illustrates this.

 

While this is positive, unfortunately part of the reason for more growing churches is that some people are simply transferring from the declining churches. About half a million people moved church in the seven years to 2005, many doing so because they moved home to a new area.

Christian Research was delighted that some of the responding churches were "Fresh Expression" churches. On average, these proved to have smaller and also younger congregations. While not always easy to continue after the initial rush of enthusiasm, could these be the answer for the declining numbers? They may well be part of an answer, but they are still far too few, despite the continuing proliferation seen on the official website, to combat the extent of the decline.

4. Larger churches are growing

The Census found that the larger the church, the more likely it was to be growing. This is especially true of churches with congregations in excess of 200, and is particularly true of the larger Anglican and Baptist churches. Why do they grow? As other research has shown, this is partly because the preaching is relevant (a very important factor), the welcome received is warm, there are suitable activities for children and adults midweek, and especially because there is likely to be strong leadership with a clear vision for the future.

The Census also found other factors were important as well. The larger the church:

•                   the greater the proportion of those attending who are under 30. Could this be because of suitable midweek activities? Young people also like to be part of larger groups for friendship and interaction.

•                   the greater the proportion of non-white churchgoers in attendance. Could this be because they like to attend "successful" churches which a growing church appears to be? Perhaps they feel more at home because they are less conspicuous and "different".

•                   the greater the proportion who come to church least frequently, that is, less often than once a month. The greater too, is the proportion of visitors. Could this be because of the friendly welcome or because in a larger church there is a greater likelihood for anonymity? This is perhaps especially true of the Cathedrals. 

This means that the larger churches are likely to become increasingly important as the years move on. Some 1% (150) of Anglican churches and 2% (50) of Baptist churches have 350 or more attending on a Sunday; these 200 churches respectively accounted for no less than 10% of all Anglican and 13% of all Baptist churchgoers in 2005. Could these larger churches be encouraged to act as "Minster Model" churches, supporting local churches (presumably of their own denomination) by enabling their leaders and giving practical help as well as providing some financial resources?

5. The challenge of Greater London

In seven Inner London Boroughs, there are over 50 Black Majority Churches, and 13 out of the 18 Inner London Boroughs saw churchgoing numbers increase between 1998 and 2005. In Greater London there are:

•              11% of all the churches in England;

•         20% of all the churchgoers, making London's churches twice as large on average as those elsewhere;

•               23% of all the Evangelical churchgoers;

•               53% of all the Pentecostal churchgoers;

•               57% of all churchgoers who are in their 20s (against 19% of the population).

Such is the strength of London's church attendance. It will find its supreme test in how they can work together for mission with the coming 2012 Olympic Games. Is it possible for the rest of the country to learn from London? The flip-side of London's strength is that other parts of England are relatively weak, especially in having relatively few churchgoers in their 20s. If 131,000 of the country's 231,000 people aged 20 to 29 who go to church go in London, that leaves 100,000 to be spread across 33,000 churches!

As this implies, not everything is good news.  There were some serious weaknesses exposed by the Census as well.

1. The Church as a whole is ageing

The average age of those going to church has increased to 45 against a population average of 40. This is because 29% of churchgoers are 65 or over (and 12% are 75 or over), against almost half that percentage, 16%, in the population generally. This means that we lose many people through being "promoted to glory" as the Salvation Army puts it. Figure 3 illustrates the gap.

It may be seen that the church is comparatively weak among those aged 20 to 44 (the age of many parents) and comparatively strong among those aged 65 to 84 (the age of many grandparents).

Of those aged 65 to 74, which the governments call the "Third Age", one in 13 attends church, the highest percentage of any age-group, and a much larger proportion than the cohort which follows it. This group is likely to remain active, fairly healthy, willing to be involved for up to another 10 years, but after they reach 75+, their energy loss and health problems will force them to do less. How can we best use this significant cluster of folk, 17% of all churchgoers, while they are still able to get involved? 

Some church children are brought up by their grandparents, not parents. A third of grandparents spend 3 days a week caring for their grandchildren, and five-sixths, 82%, of children are cared for sometimes by their grandparents. For 12% of Protestant churchgoers, grandparents were the most significant people in showing what faith is about. Some 3% of children attending Sunday School are brought by their grandparents, and if grandparents go to church, 60% of their grandchildren will go to church with them when they visit.  Grandparents are key confidants, trusted people of influence. If a child's parents break up, their grandparents often have the role of holding the child's broken world together.

2. Less frequent attendance

The Census showed that there were considerable pressures on those aged 30-44, judging by the decline in frequency of attendance shown in Figure 4, 72% of which is among women.  This was a similar finding to that in Scotland in 2002, where Focus Groups showed that this was primarily because of the strains of looking after a home and family while going to work, many having to take jobs on Sunday, partly because many such jobs were available and partly because childcare would be provided by their partner.

 

The chart also shows that those under 15 are less likely to attend church as frequently as those older. This decline may well be at least partly linked with the frequency decline among those aged 30 to 44, as this is the age-group of most parents with children under 15.  Could it be that the demands on the parents, which make them attend church less often, automatically deprive their children of attending as well?  Or vice versa?

How can churches help alleviate stress and strain on those aged 30-44, especially if they have a young family?  Can services be held for them at more convenient times, either during the week, or even on a Sunday?  One Baptist church switched its morning service from 10.00am to 4.00pm and found its numbers doubled!  

Twice as many women as men have stopped regular church attendance between 1998 and 2005, increasing the percentage of men in the church from 42% to 43%.  One-third of the women stopping were aged 30 to 44.

3. Evangelicals are declining

The number of Evangelicals in the church is fewer in 2005 than it was in 1998, dropping -9% from 1,390,000 to 1,260,000. The decline was least among the charismatics (-5%), but greatest among those describing themselves as Broad Evangelicals (-20%). Figure 4 illustrates the change in churchmanship broken down between white and non-white churchgoers.

 
While the Evangelical decline is less than that of other churchmanships, and especially of the Liberals who declined most (-40%), the figures need to be carefully considered. Overall white attendance decreased by -19%, broken down between -17% for Catholics, -17% for Evangelicals and -24% for all others. In other words, white decline was much the same whether it was Evangelical or not.

Among non-whites, however, the overall change was a growth of +19%, made up of +7% for Catholics, +37% for Evangelicals, and -4% for all others, because nearly all the non-whites, such as the burgeoning Black Majority Churches, are Evangelical. So an overall smaller rate of decline among Evangelicals is because of the growth of the non-white church community, not because of the growth of conservative or strongly Evangelical churches which are mostly white. 

4. Midweek opportunities not being taken!

The numbers attending midweek meetings were greater in 2005 than in 1998. However, this was not because more churches were holding midweek meetings, but rather because more people were attending the midweek services that were being held. The percentage of Anglican churches holding a midweek event dropped from 51% to 45%, and Baptists from 45% to 41%, but it increased in other denominations, especially the Methodists, United Reformed and New Churches, so that the overall percentage of 42% remained unchanged.  Almost three-quarters of the attenders at these meetings, 72%, also came on Sunday.

However, only a quarter of churches held a midweek youth meeting (27%). This was partly because there is still a dire absence of young people in many churches:

•                  39% of churches had no-one attending under 11 years of age

•                  49% of churches had no-one attending between 11 and 14, and

•                  59% of churches had no-one attending between 15 and 19 years of age.

These are horrific figures and indicate the huge amount of work that churches have to do to reclaim the lost ground among young people today. We may be emerging from the nosedive, but without the support of more young people, we will never begin the climb back to a safe level, let alone the supersonic!